The Great Transition

I consider all of this combined to be the great transition that is happening to all of us right now. My goal is that when you see the news—new models, new capabilities, workers being replaced—you can put it into this framework and say, okay, that's not new, that fits. It shouldn't produce as much anxiety if you can see where it's all going. I think this transition model with all its sub-transitions works as a mental model container. If you understand this, you're much less likely to be surprised.

Who knows how it's going to happen, when it's going to happen, which company is going to do it. You can't predict that stuff. I also really worry that all of this could coincide with a significant economic downturn. Automation combining with macroeconomic factors—it's not my area of expertise, and there are too many variables to say anything with confidence. It could hit in just a few months in 2026, or it could be in 2028 or later, or it could be a soft landing and not really be that bad.

My best guess is somewhere around 2027 or 2028, which is unfortunately right when I think all of this AI impact is about to hit with full force as well. I wrote about this concern recently. But the direction is possible to see. And that gives you a container to be like, okay, this all sort of makes sense inside of this framework. So you're not spooked out by all these new models and products coming out.

If you have this mental model, you're more likely to just say, eh, yeah, that seems to be the way it's going—and you can buckle down and move forward.